The Ibex has rebounded 0.72% on Monday and chained four positive sessions, its best run of 2019 makes it stand at 9,409 points. The selective managed to overcome the key resistance of 9,350 points, thanks to the momentum of the banking sector, which has benefited from the confirmation of the negotiations for the merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank.
- 11.154,600
- 1,56%
"Above the 9,350 points we believe that a movement (of the Ibex) is possible towards 9,800 points and even 10,000 points in the next sessions," says Bolsamanía analyst José María Rodríguez. "Corrections aside, it is worth betting that the increases have continuity", adds this expert.
The rest of European places have also advanced at the start of the week, with the exception of the Dax, which has dropped 0.2%. On the other hand, Wall Street quotes with few variations at the close of the Spanish market. All this after the tone in Asia has been clearly positive, with increases of 2% in China.
DEUTSCHE AND COMMERZBANK
In the business sector, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have rebounded 4.5% and 6.8%, respectively, after confirming that they are finally negotiating for their merger. Both banks have been harshly penalized by the crisis and the rumors of a union to resolve their situation came from afar.
This possible corporate movement has boosted the entire European banking sector on the stock market. In Spain, Bankia and Sabadell have added more than 2%; while Caixabank has been the most bullish value with a rise of 3.03%. Bankinter, BBVA and Santander have also finished the session in green.
Within the Ibex 35, the latest fall of Ence stands out, -12% in the last three sessions. The paper firm has fallen 1.61% and it has been the second worst value of the selective, only behind IAG (-2.20%), which continues suffering due to Brexit.
Also in business, this week the Spanish market will be awaiting the expected meeting of DIA on Wednesday. At this point, anything can happen in this meeting from which the directive seeks to approve their plans to save the company. The company's shares have added up to 0.41%.
BREXIT AND CENTRAL BANKS
This week is marked by references. Brexit is the big issue with the upcoming European summit (March 21 and 22) in which it will be seen if finally the European Union (EU) agrees to an extension (extension of Article 150) of the deadline for the United Kingdom to leave the bloc. The key of the matter is whether this extension will be long or short, since each of the parties prefers one thing.
In addition, the meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed), whose conclusions will be known on Wednesday, will also be relevant. The organism is expected to reaffirm its softer stance on rates. In addition, in this meeting the current growth forecasts will be updated and the 'dot pot' will be reviewed, which will show how the positions of the FOMC members are regarding rates.
"One of the main reasons why equity markets have rebounded as well as they have since the beginning of the year is largely due to a change of direction by the Federal Reserve in early January, when, after The sharp declines in equity markets during the fourth quarter, decided to put an end to the prospect of further tightening in 2019, "recalls Michael Hewson, chief strategist at CMC Markets in London.
There will also be a Bank of England type meeting (on Thursday). The most relevant think about it will be to see what Mark Carney has to say about the complex situation the country is going through and to what extent Brexit continues to penalize the United Kingdom economically. There are also meetings of the Norges Bank or the Swiss National Bank this week.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
"The Ibex closes the first session of the week above 9,365 points. We have overcome resistances, but we would have appreciated more decisiveness in the confirmation, especially since this morning we were talking about the ideal that Telefónica would confirm clearly above the 7.85 euros and Santander above 4.40 euros. At the end of the session, the operator has not confirmed the resistance, but the Cantabrian entity has, "says José María Rodríguez, analyst of Bolsamania.
"Thus, part of the recovery in the final stretch of the session is due to the fact that Inditex has been able to take over from the market and closed at the highs of the session (+ 0.92%), "he adds.
"Now the textile giant has to close the bearish gap of the results, and for that it has to close above 26.27 euros." If it does so, we will have recovered another of the great engines of our market and the truth is that with Santander breaking and Inditex recomposing itself, it is difficult for the Ibex not to continue climbing positions ", the analyst points out.
