Ibex 35 has fallen 0.23%, to 9,658.80 points, pressed by Inditex and Santander and supported by Telefónica and CaixaBank. It should be remembered that this is a week in which the European Central Bank (ECB) will be the protagonist - there is a rate meeting on Thursday - along with some business results - Bankinter also publishes its results on Thursday. In addition, there will be macro data of interest - such as the German ZEW or PMIs - that will help us determine if things are going better in the Old Continent.
- 11.154,600
- 1,56%
Within the Ibex, the falls in the banks have been highlighted after a report by Credit Suisse and also in Inditex (-1.8%), which have weighed the selective. On the opposite side, Telefónica (+ 2.72%) given the possible interest of a Latin American holding company in its business in Latin America (without Brazil).
In the Continuous Market, OHL has risen 6% and already accumulates a 40% rebound so far this year, waiting for possible news about the entry of the Mexican family Amodio into the capital.
At an economic level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its growth forecast for the Spanish economy by two tenths in 2020, to 1.6%, the same growth that the institution projects for 2021 and one tenth below its estimate of last October.
The IMF has explained this reduction in its projections for a "more marked than expected" slowdown in domestic demand and exports in 2019. Although it also shows signs of stabilization in the global economy. After these forecasts, the euro falls in value 0.05% and changes to $ 1.1082, while the yield of the 10-year Spanish bond falls to 0.44%.
In addition, the week begins without the reference of Wall Street, which has closed this Monday for the holiday of Martin Luther King. Therefore, it has been a day of lower trading volume, with all that this implies, especially in terms of volatility.
CENTRAL BANKS, OIL, DAVOS ...
"The central banks will be protagonists this week, with the meetings of the Norges Bank and the ECB on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan, on Tuesday. We will also receive more news about the pace of global recovery with the publication of PMIs in the Euro Zone , The US, Japan and the United Kingdom, every Friday, "explain the experts at Danske Bank.
The week has also begun with movement in oil due to the intensification of political unrest in several regions. In Libya, the ongoing civil war has caused the blockade of ports and pipelines and has forced the national oil company to announce the withdrawal of some 400,000 barrels a day from the market.
In Iraq, the repercussions of the recent confrontation between Iran and the United States remain persistent. During the weekend, the discontent of the workers led to the closure of one of the large oil fields, Al Ahdab, while another, Badra, runs the risk of being closed. Brent crude oil scales 1%, to levels close to $ 66 per barrel.
This will also be the week of the Davos Forum, with the meeting in Switzerland of 3,000 personalities and great leaders from all over the world and to which Donald Trump will attend. The meetings start this Tuesday and run until Friday. This Tuesday investors will also attend the opening by the Senate of the political trial against the president of the United States.
"The central bankers will be in Davos and could take the opportunity to reflect on their next strategic revisions. As for the Trump trial, it will generate a lot of noise in the market, but we emphasize that it is still very unlikely that the president will be overthrown, since this requires the backing of Republican senators, "they point out from Danske Bank.
IBEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 35
"The 'feeling' is still good in our Ibex. And, despite the red numbers, we close away from the minimum of the day and return to the doors of the resistance of 9,700 points. A close above, to be able to do it with some slack, would be a clear sign of strength in our selective. Before it can be a new upward stretch with a target of 10,000 points as a round and psychological figure, "says José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.
"But it is no less true that if we believe the inverted 'head and shoulders' of which we have spoken in previous analysis, it points towards 10,500 points. Everything will remain in order, under control, to the extent that support is not pierced of 9,468 points. We highlight Telefónica on Monday, which stands at the gates of the resistance it presents at approximately 6.37-6.38 euros, before an important support area, "concludes this expert.
