European indexes fall on Thursday strongly (Ibex: -0.57%. 9,883 points; Cac: -0.57%; Dax: -0.33%; Ftse 100: -1.52%) after China has readjusted the method to calculate the number of those affected by the coronavirus and reported a strong increase in infections (60,000) and those killed (1,300). The provincial Health Commission has explained that the figure includes 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases, which as of Thursday are considered confirmed cases, as this can facilitate timely standard treatment and achieve higher success rates in the recovery of patients.
- 10.854,700
- -0,16%
"Investors are more pessimistic this Thursday due to the increase in infections and the death rate in China due to the coronavirus. A revised methodology has been implemented that should correct the bad techniques that led to the lack of information. The rate increase of infection makes investors cautious, "explains Naeem Aslam, director of analysis for Ava Trade.
All this has happened when investors were more confident that things were going to be solved and when there was some impression that the Wuhan virus was starting to go less. "What has happened today has hit trust," adds Aslam.
The Chinese province of Hubei, the most affected, reported 242 deaths on Wednesday. This is double the figure of the previous day. "This news was enough to cause falls in the Asian stock markets and bring down the positive feeling that led Wall Street on Wednesday to set new highs," says Naeem Aslam.
The Ibex has faced this new scenario when it was touching 10,000. Within the selective we have highlighted the cuts of more than 3% in Indra. Cie and Arcerinox have fallen more than 2%.
As for the rest, it should be noted that the euro has registered a sharp fall that places it at a minimum since 2017. Analysts point out that this has to do, in part, with the macroeconomic evolution of the Euro Zone, which is not accelerating as expected. The rise of populism in Europe, with renewed political problems, does not help, without forgetting the impact of the coronavirus. "There is increasing pessimism because Germany is heading towards a recession due to the persistent impact of the coronavirus," experts say.
Regarding the business field, attention to the third small listed company that announces economic problems at the beginning of 2020 and which quotation has been suspended by the CNMV: Sniace. If things were already going badly for the company, they got worse after Cogen has announced the end of the lease and management contract for its Torrelavega factory. In addition, overseas companies have published important results companies, such as Credit Suisse or Airbus.
In the macro level, in the United States the data of the CPI has been known and it has risen in January by 2.5% driven by rents. This is the highest level since 2018. At the inter-monthly rate, inflation has fallen to 0.1% from the previous 0.2%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
"The Ibex closes in red numbers but clearly far from the minimum of the day. Technically nothing has happened here. In fact, it was predictable that after a rise of just over 6% since Monday last week and with the right price in the upper part of the bullish channel of recent months, by definition resistance, the market decided to take a small breather, "explains the technical analyst of Bolsamania, José María Rodríguez.
"A fall towards the support (before resistance) of 9,700 points would be something normal. In fact, BBVA presents exactly the same graphic as the Ibex. The two have touched the upper part of the bullish channel and there they have stopped, "he clarifies.
"Meanwhile, its most direct competitor, Santander, continues to struggle to position itself comfortably above the bearish guideline as well as the resistance of 3.90-3.95 euros. But as we have been commenting in the last sessions / weeks, ideally our index should close on weekly candles above the four euros. Only then will we leave the door open to, perhaps, something different "concludes the expert.
