The Ibex has traded with slight earnings since the opening, until the red numbers came around after knowing that the activity of the services sector in the US has fallen to a minimum since 2014. Right now, the Spanish selective has digested this data and quoted practically flat at 8,900 points. October has started as it was expected and, suddenly, everything is looking down. Although little has really changed in context compared to September, it is true that there are several 'new' aspects that are of concern. Since the beginning of the month, the index accumulates a fall of 3.4%.
- 11.154,600
- 1,56%
The latest bad macro data in the United States (ISM manufacturing and services, employment ADP ...) confirm that things are going badly, economically speaking, all over the world. This is a recurring concern, but that the situation is also twisting in the US further demonstrates to what extent the trade war between the United States and China is affecting globally.
As if this were not enough, autumn comes with what was already expected: the 'reactivation' of the trade war between the United States and Europe. Because it is during these months - October and November - when the US should say something about European car tariffs, a topic that worries a lot. At the moment, this Wednesday the ban was opened after knowing that the US will impose tariffs - worth 7.5 billion dollars - on airplanes and agricultural products of the EU after a failure of the World Trade Organization that has declared illegal aid received by Airbus from several European countries.
"The fear that the world economy is slowing came to light yesterday. (...) In view of what has been happening this week, the moment we are living regarding tariffs is terrible," says David Madden, CMC Markets analyst in London.
In other markets things are not going better. Oil does not stop falling and the Brent barrel is trading below 60 dollars, eliminating everything gained by the drone attacks on the refineries in Saudi Arabia. Barclays experts say recent data and indicators "suggest a rise in oil prices from current levels." The truth is that their behavior is tremendously volatile while doubts about demand and the fluctuations in production persist.
And, meanwhile, Brexit seems to clear some doubts on something. Boris Johnson presented his new exit plan to Brussels yesterday and Europe seems not to be completely closed to negotiate. His proposal focuses on getting rid of the controversial 'backstop' for the Irish border and replacing it with a regulated border in the Irish Sea. The deadline to achieve a solution is there (October 31) and, without a doubt, this is another element of uncertainty and tension for this complicated October.
Moreover, in the data front, PMI services in Europe have generally turned out worse than expected, confirming fears. Spain's PMI fell to 53.3 from 54.3 and was also below expectations. The Euro Zone was 51.6 from 53.5 and compared to the estimate of 52.0. At the business level, H&M rises strongly after recording the first quarterly increase in profit in more than two years. In addition, OHL collapses after losing an appeal against Qatar that enables it to claim 1.1bn. In the US, Tesla falls into the 'premarket' after offering below-expected order data.
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