The Ibex rose 0.9% on Monday, managing to change the trend with which it closed last week, in which it lost 2%, but without being able to recover the 9,000 points it lost last Thursday, staying at 8,936. The rest of the large European indices closed with increases close to 1%.
- 11.100,800
- -0,48%
The political day has been marked by rumors of a possible early elections, news that has not had a clear impact on the market, and the week will be loaded with relevant dates with the start of the 1-O trial and, on the international level , with the news about Brexit, the trade war and the possibility of a new government shutdown in the United States.
Caixabank (+ 2.5%), Ence Energía (+ 2.4%) and Mediaset (+ 2.4%) led the increases in a session with few ups and downs and in which very few securities closed in red. The 'blue chip' has driven the selective, highlighting the rise of Inditex (+ 1.7%), Santander (+ 1.2%) and BBVA (+ 1.1%).
The negative note of the day was Meliá Hotels that has plummeted 5.75% after losing 6% last Thursday. This Monday, the declines are motivated by the advice of Bank of America Merill Lynch, which has begun the coverage of the hotel with an underweight rating.
Followed by Arcelormittal (-1.2%), which continues without raising its head due to its security problems in Brazil, which forced it to evacuate 200 people belonging to a community near its mine of Serra Azul last week. The steelmaker has lost 9% since Thursday.
Another highlight of the session was Sabadell (+ 0.9%), which has increased its treasury stock up to 2015 highs, after the stock market crash suffered by its shareholders in the last weeks.
Other companies that have seen their rating changed have been Endesa (+ 0.2%) and its parent company Enel, to which Fitch has improved from 'BBB +' to 'A-' and Bankia (+ 1.3%), that was lowered from 'buy' to 'add' weeks after JP Morgan lowered its Spanish bank profit forecast for 2019 and 2020.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For José María Rodríguez, technical analyst at Bolsamanía, the increases with which we have started the week have no implications whatsoever. "This reaction is due to the fact that in the session last Friday the Ibex managed to grab hold of the short-term support zone, which presents at the base of the bearish channel in which the price has been moving for the past two weeks. As for the rest, everything is the same, "explains Rodríguez.
"As control areas below (support) we have the 8,760 points (50% of recoil), while above we have the resistance of 9,260 points, and in this last level is where the key of the short term is, because on top we will have a potential back figure of bullish implications with an objective in the 10,000 points ", declares the analyst.
IBEX, TRADE WAR AND GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
The week ahead will continue to be marked by news about Brexit, with several key dates to be able to close an agreement that can be approved by British parliamentarians. This Wednesday, February 13, the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, will make a statement to the Parliament and on February 14, a new debate on Brexit will be held in the Commons. Today it has been known that the British economy slowed down in the last quarter of 2018, as expected, placing growth in 2018 at its weakest point in six years.
In the field of national politics, this week is crucial. This Tuesday begins the trial of the prisoners of the 'procés', which will lead to more uncertainty related to Catalonia. Also, that same day the Budgets are to be debated in the Congress. On Wednesday, they will be held to vote and could possibly be rejected ... or not. In any case, if they do not accept them, that possible call for early elections by Pedro Sánchez will be on the table. It is speculated that these could be held on April 14.
Finally, on the other side of the Atlantic, investors attention will continue to revolve around the trade war, especially after last week it became known that Donald Trump will not meet with Xi Jinping before March 1, which means that tariffs could be hiked on Chinese products from the current 10% to 25%. According to the latest information, there could be a meeting in the middle of next month between the two presidents in Mar-a-Lago, the exclusive club that the North American leader has in Palm Beach, Florida.
Also, do not forget that on Friday expires the deadline for Republicans and Democrats to reach an agreement to avoid another government shutdown. According to the latest information, there is no progress in the negotiations on the wall, which reduces the possibilities of approving the budget and increases the possibility of a new closure.
