- Wall Street closed the last day with slight increases although this Tuesday it's dyed red
- Uncertainties persist, both in Europe and in the United States
The Ibex 35 has gone another path this session from the rest of Europe. It has been the only market in the Old Continent that has finished the session in red, although it has managed to finally maintain 10,200 points (10,207 in particular) after yielding a 0.49% at the close. However, it has reached an intraday minimum at 10,159 points.
The Spanish index has been pressed this session especially by the falls in Telefonica, which has been all day one of the worst titles. The 'teleco' chaired by José María Álvarez-Pallete has retreated to the close by 2.27% before the new collapse of the Argentine peso, which on Monday gave way to 25 units per dollar.
Apart from Telefónica, the 'great values' of the Ibex have suffered this session (except Repsol). And more prominently, BBVA bank, which has yielded more than 1.50% due to the depreciation of the Turkish lira.
However, the most bearish values were Inmobiliaria Colonial (-3.42%) and Indra (-3.16%). In addition, Técnicas Reunidas continues to suffer after the weak quarterly results published this Monday. They also showed a bad behavior on Tuesday Meliá Hotels and DIA.
On the other hand, the most bullish companies this session were Amadeus (+ 1.41%), Acciona (+ 0.87%) and Siemens Gamesa (+ 0.72%). The latter announced today a new order in Japan: it has reached its first agreement with Tokyu Land Corporation for two projects in Hokkaido, to which it will supply 22 wind turbines SWT-3.4-108.
On Tuesday, results season continues. In Spain, Ezentis has reduced its losses to 837,000 euros in the first quarter. For its part, Quabit has gained 68.7% more in the first three months of the year "as a result of the registration of debt discounts agreed with a financial institution." The turnover, however, has fallen more than 80%.
On the other hand, the socia Axiare Patrimonio announced losses of almost 55 million euros between January and March 2018, compared to the profit of 13 million registered in the same period of 2017, due to the integration in Colonial. At the close, it will publish its OHL accounts, which tomorrow celebrates 'Capital Markets Day'.
POLITICS AND MACROECONOMICS
We are still talking about Italy, Catalonia and the trade relations between China and the United States. As for Italy, it is close to forming a coalition government between the '5 Star Movement' and the 'Northern League'. However, on Monday there were last-minute problems, such as choosing a prime minister. "Some very radical populist ideas are being promoted, such as the 15% fixed income tax ('Liga') and the guaranteed income for the poor ('Cinco Estrellas'). These ideas do not sit well with Brussels or the market of bonuses ", warn the experts of Danske Bank.
These analysts point out that, however, after years of fear by a populist government in Italy, the reaction of the bond market "has the distinctive air of indifference." Italian bond yields have only risen moderately with respect to other peripheral debts. or, as Villeroy de Galhau would say, the bond market does not consider the composition of the Italian government as a profound existential issue. "
Precisely Francois Villeroy de Galhau, member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on Monday that the first rate hike will come some quarters later, and not years later, the end of QE. He also joked that the exact moment of the end of QE was not "a deep existential question".
As for the macro agenda, this Tuesday important references have been released. In Germany, the preliminary GDP of the first quarter has fallen to 1.6% from the previous 2.3%. On the other hand, the ZEW of current situation in May, also in Germany, has remained at 87.4 against the forecast of 86.2. In addition, in the Euro Zone, the preliminary GDP of the first quarter has risen by 2.5%, in line with the estimate.
In the United States, there is focus on sales in April. In addition, several members of the Federal Reserve (Fed), such as Robert Kaplan or John Williams, will speak.
For José María Rodríguez, technical analyst of Bolsamanía, "the technical aspect of our index continues to point very good ways" despite the declines of this Tuesday, "mainly driven by Telefónica and its interests in Argentina."
"After all, the falls we are seeing both in this Monday's session and in today's are minimal compared to the previous rises (of 10% since the end of March)," says the expert. "Prices continue to show increasing lows and highs (definition of uptrend) and no significant support has been drilled, these falls are a drop in the bullish ocean of recent weeks," he adds.
Therefore, Rodriguez believes we should not forget that "we have seven consecutive weeks of increases in the Ibex." "On the resistance side we have one, the most immediate, at yesterday's highs (10,291) and above we have 10,400 points, where we have another daily bearish gap," he explains.
"In the shorter term it is convenient to pay attention to Telefónica, whose graph is deteriorating at a forced pace due to the collapse of the Argentine peso and the economic interests that our operator has in the country." This morning Telefonica woke up with a bearish gap in the opening ( 8,24) that will now become resistance, or what is the same, as long as this gap does not close the trading bias will be bearish as far as the short term is concerned, "concluded the technical analyst.