The Ibex 35 has risen 0.11%, to 6,581.60 points, in a week that has been marked by poor macro data and by the recovery in oil. While last week it was the strong economic measures taken to curb the virus that stood out, during this week there have been fewer announcements of measures and more weighing to what extent the coronavirus is impacting and will impact the economy. In parallel, crude oil has been a clear protagonist, with a very strong rebound caused by Donald Trump's intervention in the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Brent crude oil shoots up 11% to $ 33.42.
- 11.068,500
- -0,77%
The Ibex falls around 3% in the accumulated index for the week, waiting for what happens today, marked by very negative macro data. After the lousy job references on Thursday in the US and Spain, PMI services in Europe have been known today. In Spain, it has plummeted to 23 from 52.1, which anticipates an unprecedented recession; and in Italy, it has sunk to 17.4 from 52.1.
"At this time, trying to quantify the magnitude and duration of the pandemic in terms of falls in GDP and employment is extremely difficult, but overall there is a high probability that the severity of the recession in the second quarter will exceed all that we have seen during the sharp recession of 2008/2009, "warned Paul Smith, economist at IHS Markit
In the US, the unemployment rate has gone from 3.5% in February in a month, 50-year lows, to 4.4% in March, highs in 2017. The American economy destroyed 700,000 jobs last month, seven times more than anticipated. In addition, ISM services has fallen to 52.5 from 57.3, although it has been well above the expected drop to 44. In any case, analysts anticipate that it will collapse in April.
By values within the Ibex, the most bearish are Repsol (-4%) and Indra (-3%), while the most bullish are Cellnex (+ 4%) and MásMóvil (+ 4%). In other markets, the euro depreciates 0.58% and changes to $ 1.0793 and the yield on the Spanish 10-year bond relaxes to 0.70%, while the Spanish risk premium rises slightly to 117 points .
TRUMP WINGS OIL
As for oil, the US president managed to shoot 20% with a single tweet this Thursday, suggesting an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia. OPEC + has announced a meeting for Monday.
"I just spoke to my MBS friend (Mohamed bin Salman, crown prince) of Saudi Arabia, who has spoken to (Russian Vladimir) Putin president," the US president tweeted. Hinting that they had reached an agreement to end the price war, he said: "I hope they will reduce their production by around ten million barrels, perhaps much more". "It could even go as high as 15 million barrels. Good (excellent) news for everyone!" He added.
Returning to the Ibex, and regarding its technical aspect, Bolsamanía analysts continue to point out that it is necessary to be alert to a possible abandonment of 6,500 points. "If you leave this price level behind, it is very likely that we could end up seeing an extension of the falls to the 6,000 point level. The key support is at 5,814 points," explains César Nuez, an expert at Bolsamanía.
