The Ibex 35 has lost 9,200 points after falling 0.4%, to 9,191, at the start of a week with multiple geopolitical references that worry investors. The trade war between China and the United States will have an important update this weekend at the expected meeting during the G20 summit. There are also concerns about tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and everything regarding Brexit in the UK.
- 11.154,600
- 1,56%
In our selective today there were falls in Ence (-3%), IAG (-1.8%) and Amadeus (-1.7%). The shares of the paper group cannot seem to turn its streak around due to uncertainty about the future of its factory in Pontevedra, while the airline is still penalized by the cut in forecasts for the sector that is making the market in recent weeks.
On the positive side is MásMóvil, which has led the Spanish index (+ 3.22%) after debuting. The telecommunications operator is consolidated as the fourth operator nationwide and promises to give Telefonica, Orange and Vodafone trouble.
In business today, a bank is the protagonist: Santander has announced that it will pay 936.5 million to Allianz to break the pact in the insurance business with Popular.
In other outstanding news, Cie Automotive has announced the purchase of the Mexican companies Precision Machines of Mexico and Precision Courts of Mexico for some 58 million euros.
Outside Spain there is talk of Daimler, which has cut its profit forecasts for 2019 before the provisions for issues related to its diesel vehicles and amounting to millions of euros. The company falls 4% and burdens the entire European Automobile sector.
GEOPOLITHICAL FACTORS
The week starts with a large number of geopolitical catalysts and all of them will clearly condition the markets. In recent news we find the latest threat from the United States to apply sanctions on Iran from today - which is driving oil up - but also the leadership race in the United Kingdom, the anticipation of the G20 meeting at the end of the week, the meeting that's expected to happen between Trump and Xi Jinping, or what has happened in Turkey this Sunday, with a historic setback to Erdogan that is causing rises in the lira.
Regarding the macro data of today, the IFO of the current situation of Germany in June has remained at 100.8 against the expected 100.0 and at 100.6 in May. The IFO business climate also improved (97.4 versus 97.3), although it has fallen from 97.9 in the previous month. The IFO expectations stood at 94.2, below the forecast of 94.5 and the previous figure of 95.3.
In other markets, Brent oil fell 1.2% to $ 64.40, after rebounding strongly last week due to tension between Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz, strategic step of the oil trade. In addition, the euro has touched the level of $ 1.14 and has marked highs of the last three months in its cross against the 'greenback'. The Spanish risk premium falls to 71 points and the yield on the Spanish 10-year bond continues to set minimum records, falling to 0.41%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35
Many relevant factors, therefore, on a day that marks the third anniversary of the largest intraday fall of the Ibex in its history (-12.35%) only beaten by the session on the day of the Brexit referendum.
"The slow but continuous trickle of the second part of last week continues in our selective and little by little we move away from the resistance zone of the 9.335 points, which leaves the door open to the end, the potential 'head and shoulders' inverted does not even get confirmed, "says José María Rodríguez, Bolsamanía expert.
"That said, in the very short term we now have a little support around the corner: in the approximately 9,130 points and below the minimum of last week in the 9,060 points. The truth is that, in theory, strong movements are not expected in the indexes this week, or at least not until the outcome of the negotiations is known this weekend of the G20, between the US and China, "adds this expert.
"We can expect a week of consolidation levels / proportional adjustment after the 'rally' experienced by the set of global stock from the lows of Tuesday last week, and if we look at the Dax, we can see that this is has stopped at the gates of the resistance that it presents at the May highs (12,435) .The index has slowed down but we can only be sure of a new bullish trend if it closes clearly above the annual highs. Meanwhile, we have simply been restrained in resistance ", concludes Rodríguez.
